Where is the gold price headed?

Correction in gold and silver was indicated..

Gold and silver experienced a historic rollercoaster ride over the past week. Massive price increases in just a few weeks were followed by a sharp drop in prices. In recent days, prices have recovered and are still trading at just over 10% for gold and roughly 5% for silver above the levels seen at the beginning of 2026, raising the question of whether a further price correction could occur. To answer this, let's look at the reasons for the rise.

...in view of fundamental overvaluation

Unlike in most previous cases, the rise in the price of gold in recent months has not been accompanied by a significant decline in interest rates or an increase in (long-term) inflation expectations, which make gold more attractive as a non-interest-bearing investment and store of value. For the most important capital market by far, the US, only two further interest rate cuts to a key interest rate level of around 3% are expected by the end of the year. In addition, long-term US inflation expectations have hardly changed at just under 2.5%. Based on a model that estimates changes in the price of gold using macroeconomic factors, the price of gold has still risen by around USD 2,000 more over the last three years than would be justified by the fundamental factors on the basis of the model after the recent slump.

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