German recovery monitor – update
When will the upturn finally start?
Dr. Ralph Solveen
Commerzbank Economic Research
10/09/2025
We look at indicators for the individual sectors of the German economy and examine them for signs of an impending upturn. The picture has recently deteriorated again. This is particularly true for manufacturing, where the signs of hope seen a month ago have at least weakened. Clear signs of an upturn therefore continue to exist only in the construction sector. In contrast, there are no indications so far that the economy will improve significantly in the services sector in the near future.
Setback for manufacturing
The Ifo Business Climate for manufacturing has deteriorated slightly twice in a row recently. This also applies to business expectations. Although the mood among companies is still better than at the beginning of the year, there are no signs of a strong upturn.
The Purchasing Managers' Index also saw a setback in September. However, the trend here continues to point clearly upward. With a value close to the 50 mark, it signals at least stagnation in the sector and no longer a contraction, as was the case a few months ago.
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
