Return of the sovereign debt crisis?

Government debt as a percentage of GDP is in most of the major EMU countries already higher than before ...

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Dr. Jörg Krämer

Commerzbank Economic Research

08/29/2025

... the outbreak of the sovereign debt crisis in 2010. Some investors fear that a new sovereign debt crisis will eventually occur. But the most obvious scenario is not necessarily the most likely one. This analysis is based on my opinion piece, which was recently published in the Börsen-Zeitung newspaper.

Rapidly rising government debt

Government debt will continue to grow rapidly. Maturing bonds with very low coupons will have to be replaced by bonds with higher coupons. Moreover, expenditures will rise due to the aging of society and higher defense spending.

All in all, Italy's public debt, for example, is likely to reach almost 150 percent of GDP in ten years. France's public debt ratio is growing faster than that of any other major EMU country and will probably be only slightly below Italy's in ten years. In Germany, once a role model, the ratio is likely to rise from a recent level of just over 60 percent to 90 percent.

For full text see attached PDF-Version.