Germany – How much are Trump's tariffs slowing down exports?
German goods exports fell by 1.4% in May compared with the previous month. A considerable proportion of this decline is a result of weak exports to the US.
Commerzbank Economic Research
07/08/2025
Disappointing figures for German exports: goods exports were 1.4% lower in May than in April, marking the second consecutive month of significant decline. As in April, the decline compared with the previous month is largely attributable to a significant drop in exports to the US. These fell by 7.7% in May compared with the previous month, after already declining by more than 10% in April.
The higher US tariffs certainly contributed significantly to this sharp decline. However, when assessing these figures, it should be borne in mind that, despite adjustment for seasonal and calendar effects, monthly figures for Exports to individual countries and regions are still much more volatile than the figures for total exports. For example, exports to the US rose by more than 12% overall in February and March, probably because many companies brought forward deliveries to avoid the higher US tariffs. Compared with the average for last year as a reference, exports were 8% higher in March and 10.5% lower in May. Therefore, at least so far, there can be no talk of a “dramatic slump.”
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