Glimmer of hope for German manufacturing

Incoming orders in German industry rose sharply by 6.9% in December compared to the previous month.

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Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

02/06/2025

This is partly due to significantly more big-ticket orders. However, even without this always very volatile factor, there was a noticeable increase of 2.2%. This gives hope that the manufacturing sector will soon have bottomed out, which would help to ensure that the German economy picks up at least somewhat from the spring.

This is at least a glimmer of hope for German manufacturing which has been hit hard in recent years: in December, price-adjusted new orders rose by 6.9% compared to November, which is significantly more than we had already expected (Commerzbank: 4.0%, consensus: 2.0%). This is partly due to significantly more big-ticket orders – probably also in the defense sector – the volume of which fluctuates greatly and which are usually processed with a considerable time lag, thus hardly affecting production in the short term. However, even if these are factored out, manufacturing companies recorded a 2.2% increase in orders. This was the highest core figure since summer 2023.

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