Election update Germany – polls stable

Just under three weeks before the Bundestag elections, the polls have changed little to date – despite the harsh debate on migration policy and how to deal with the AfD.

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Dr Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

02/03/2025

The CDU/CSU are likely to be by far the strongest parliamentary group in the Bundestag after the elections, and together with the SPD or the Greens they would probably have a clear majority in the Bundestag. However, the coalition negotiations are unlikely to have been made any easier by the disputes of recent days.

Hardly any movement in the polls ...

In the past week, the projections of the seven opinion research institutes we are covering have once again hardly changed. The results of CDU and CSU are trending downwards slightly, while the AfD is trending slightly upwards. The average values for the SPD and Greens have hardly changed despite movements in individual projections, and the smaller parties “Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW), the Liberals (FDP) and the Left Party are all in danger of failing to reach the 5% hurdle. The Left Party's hopes of re-entering the Bundestag by winning three direct mandates have recently been dampened. According to a detailed forecast for the individual constituencies, it will only win two direct mandates.

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