Election update Germany – Will the migration debate move the polls?
Four weeks before the Bundestag elections, there is little movement in the polls:
Commerzbank Economic Research
01/27/2025
CDU/CSU still clearly in the lead despite losses
The political mood in Germany has changed only slightly in the past week. Although the CDU and CSU have recently lost further support, all projections indicate that they will receive by far the most votes in the upcoming Bundestag elections on February 23 (Chart 1). The SPD and the Greens have recently made slight gains, while the AfD's ratings have fallen slightly. The FDP and the Left Party are still below 5% and are therefore in danger of missing out on re-entering the Bundestag, although the Left Party is hoping to be represented in parliament by winning three direct mandates even if the result is below 5%.
BSW only just over the 5% hurdle
The question mark behind the entrance of the left-wing “Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance” (BSW) into parliament is also getting bigger and bigger. On average, the seven opinion research institutes we have included expect the BSW to gain only 5% of the vote. However, it has to be taken into account that the projections for this new party are likely to be more uncertain than for the “older” parties due to a lack of past experience.
Do the CDU and CSU only need one partner?
Not much has changed in the past week with regard to possible coalitions either. If the BSW, FDP and Left Party fail to enter the Bundestag, the CDU/CSU would have a fairly clear majority in the Bundestag with both the SPD and the Greens based on the current projections. However, if all three parties overcome the 5% hurdle, the situation would become much tighter. A black-green coalition would probably miss a majority, and a coalition of CDU/CSU and SPD would have such a narrow majority that it would hardly be possible to rely on it. This is all the more true as such a coalition would have to negotiate many very painful compromises for some MPs due to profound differences of opinion on important issues. Consequently, such a parliament with seven parliamentary groups is more likely to return to a three-party coalition, with all the familiar problems.
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