Trump – winning bigly!

Trump wins ...

Donald Trump will move back into the White House after a four-year break. According to the assessment of the US media, he wins enough states to achieve a majority in the decisive electoral college.

... and can presumably count on Congress majorities

Trump can probably rely on a majority in both chambers of Congress. In the Senate, the Republicans can count on at least 51 of 100 seats. So far, they have been in the minority there. In the House of Representatives, the final result will not be known for a few days. As things stand now, the Republicans have won a net total of one seat in the House races that have already been decided. In a number of races, the winner has not yet been determined, so a Republican majority is not guaranteed. However, experience suggests that, in view of Trump's success, he is more likely to have pulled further Republicans along with him in the races that are still open. This should at least allow the Republicans to maintain their narrow majority in the House of Representatives, or even expand it slightly.

A majority in the Senate is particularly important for a smooth transition of power, as the relevant Senate committees must confirm the president's selection of personnel for cabinet posts and other high-level government offices.

Compared to 2020, the Trump team has prepared the takeover of government business much better. Numerous candidates for key posts have already been vetted.

According to media reports, the candidates for Secretary of the Treasury are investment bankers John Paulson and Howard Lutnick, hedge fund manager Scott Bessent, as well as a few people who were already active in Trump's first term in office such as Robert Lighthizer (then US Trade Representative), Jay Clayton (then Chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission), Larry Kudlow (then Director of the President's Economic Advisory Board) and Bill Hagerty (then US Ambassador to Japan).

Jamieson Greer, who used to be Lighthizer's right-hand man, is being considered for the post of trade representative – an important office in view of Trump's tariff plans – alongside Lighthizer and Hagerty.

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