US jobs growth accelerates again

The data ...

In September, US job growth amounted to a surprisingly strong 254,000. In addition, the figures for July and August were revised upwards to 144,000 and 159,000, respectively (previously reported: 89,000 and 142,000). The unemployment rate continued to fall from 4.2% to 4.1% (4.051% rounded to three places) after reaching an interim high of 4.3% in July. Average hourly earnings rose by a surprisingly strong 0.4% compared with August and 4.0% compared with September 2023.

... and the story

After several disappointing employment reports, the data for September were surprisingly favorable. The number of jobs rose sharply, and revisions to the data showed that the situation in previous months was better than feared. All sectors expanded, except for manufacturing and transportation. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell, with even the broadest measure of underemployment, which includes, among others, involuntary part-time workers, falling from 7.9% to 7.7%. In addition, wages rose more sharply again, with the increase in August also being revised upwards. The only weak point is that employees worked shorter hours on average.

The employment figures are based on a sample of selected companies rather than a full survey of all companies. They can therefore fluctuate sharply from month to month. Accordingly, individual monthly values should not be over-interpreted. Just as the last reports probably presented the situation as too bad, today's figures could be “too good”. The six-month average is likely to be more meaningful. It continues to show a slight weakening. However, there is no sign of an imminent slump. Rather, significant employment gains and rising wages suggest that private consumption will continue to support GDP growth. We continue to expect the US economy to avoid a recession.

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