US – hundreds of thousands jobs to be revised away
In view of a possible US recession, American labor market data is currently the focus of interest.
Commerzbank Economic Research
08/19/2024
Labor market data: benchmark revision is looming
The employment data published each month is determined on the basis of surveys. The statisticians conduct two surveys for this purpose:
- A survey of around 60 thousand private households. This data forms the basis for the unemployment rate and an employment figure that is not normally the focus of attention.
- A survey of 119 thousand businesses and government entities with over 600 thousand individual worksites. This survey is the basis for nonfarm payrolls. We will focus on this figure below.
The employment data determined surveys are compared once a year with the complete figures derived primarily from state unemployment insurance tax records that nearly all employers are required to file. The preliminary data on the scope of the revision for March 2024 (March is always the “benchmark month”) will be published on August 21. However, the revised figures will only be worked into the payroll data with the employment report for January 2025.
The revisions are normally quite small...
In the last ten years, revisions have averaged +/- 0.1%. In extreme cases, employment was revised downwards (2019) or upwards (2022) by around 500 thousand jobs. For March 2023, the survey-based values were only 187 thousand too high (chart). In view of an employment level of 154 million at the time, the error was therefore only 0.1%.
For full text see attached PDF-Version.
