UK elections – landslide win for Labour

The Labour Party has won a landslide victory in the British parliamentary elections, gaining the most seats in over 100 years.

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Bernd Weidensteiner, Dr. Christoph Balz

Commerzbank Economic Research

July 5 2024

With an expected 410 of the 650 MPs, the future Prime Minister Starmer can rely on a clear majority in the House of Commons. The previously governing Conservatives suffered a heavy defeat and are going into opposition after 14 years. The new government faces major challenges, although its room for maneuver is severely limited by the difficult budget situation.

Labour Party wins in a landslide...

As expected, the British Labour Party clearly won the UK's General Elections. With 638 of 650 constituencies declared, it achieved at least 410 seats in the House of Commons, an increase of over 200 seats (Chart 1). With this result, the party even eclipsed Tony Blair's election victory in 1997 (an increase of 147 seats). Labour has now a clear majority in Parliament. Keir Starmer, the leader of the Labour Party, will become the new British Prime Minister. However, the clear swing in favor of Labour is due to the peculiarities of the British electoral system. With around 34% of the vote, the party only managed a good 1.5 percentage points more than in the last election. Only in Scotland was it able to significantly increase its share.

Prime Minister Sunak's Conservatives, on the other hand, suffered a heavy defeat and lost more than 240 seats. They will only have about 120 MPs in the new House of Commons, the lowest number in the last 100 years. The Tories will go into opposition after 14 years in government.

Among the other parties, Nigel Farage's Reform UK Party won at least 4 seats. It received 4 million votes compared to 6.7 million for the Conservatives. The Scottish National Party (SNP), which campaigns for Scottish independence, lost most of its 52 seats. The Liberal Democrats, on the other hand, now has 70 MPs, a significant increase.

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