US jobs data: another massive downward revision is due
Revisions to US labor market data are currently a highly sensitive political matter.
Commerzbank Economic Research
08/07/2025
When revisions become political ...
The latest employment report has caused quite a stir politically: US statisticians have revised employment figures for May and June downward by a total of 258,000 jobs, an unusually sharp correction. Immediately afterwards, President Trump fired the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and accused her of manipulating the data for political reasons.
The president's mood is unlikely to improve when the results of the annual benchmark revision of employment data are published next month. This is because an even more significant downward revision is expected.
... the annual revision is sure to attract increased attention ...
The monthly labor market data is compiled on the basis of surveys. Figures such as the unemployment rate are based on a survey of around 60,000 private households. However, the current debate about the revisions focuses on non-farm payrolls, which are determined by a survey of 121,000 companies and government agencies with over 630,000 workplaces (the so-called establishment survey).
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