USA – safety warning for the safe haven?

President Trump's sometimes erratic tariff policy and his aggressive approach towards trading partners have dented confidence in the United States as a ‘safe haven’.

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Bernd Weidensteiner

Commerzbank Economic Research

05/27/2025

International investors could therefore become more cautious. However, given the scale of investments in the United States, massive shifts out of the US are difficult. We provide an overview.

The US has been benefiting from capital inflows for 50 years ...

Since the early 1980s, the US has had a financial account surplus, which has only become wider over time. Foreigners buy American assets or grant loans to US companies or the government. The US is a repository for other countries' savings surpluses. Mirroring this, the US has a high current account deficit, which has been in the red since 2000, averaging around 3.5% of GDP. The trade deficit is therefore financed by the sale of assets or by borrowing abroad.

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