Rejecting Unicredit: “Commerzbank is systemically important”

• Commerzbank is resisting a hostile takeover by Unicredit; board member Thomas Schaufler emphasizes the bank’s systemic importance and its ability to operate successfully as an independent institution in Germany and Europe.
• Schaufler expects moderately rising interest rates in the wake of ECB policy and, despite difficulties in some sectors, continues to see solid lending activity, particularly supported by long standing customer relationships and government support programs.
• He considers a takeover by Unicredit neither economically nor strategically sensible: the focus should be on customer business and investment financing, not on a risky integration with potential inward looking self absorption.
• Schaufler warns of integration risks for employees and customers, emphasizes Commerzbank’s special role for the German Mittelstand, and points out that the federal government and bank committees support the independent strategy and reject Unicredit’s hostile approach.

Mr. Schaufler, do you expect increasingly rising interest rates as a result of the Iran conflict?
The market is currently very volatile. The inflation rate for March mostly corresponds to the scenario of the European Central Bank, in which inflation in the euro area climbs to just above the 3.0 percent mark in the second quarter. We assume that the ECB will raise key interest rates once in April or at least signal a rate hike in June. In this respect, the market expects that the deposit rate will go from 2.0 toward 2.50 percent.

For some time now, businesses have been complaining about problems with credit supply. According to a KfW survey, around 38 percent of small and medium sized enterprises have reported more difficult conditions. How much do these problems worry you?
That varies greatly. There are sectors with difficult framework conditions due to developments in recent years, for example the automotive industry or its suppliers. It is particularly beneficial if a company has had a long standing banking partner. Last year, we had satisfactory loan growth and stand by our customers. We are all still optimistic that the federal government’s support measures in form of a growth and stimulus package will take effect soon. This package addresses several areas that are relevant for our corporate and entrepreneurial customers. As a major financing partner of the economy, we remain ready to support investments.

Nevertheless, criticism of the banks’ restrictive approach is clear. Does this not hinder investment?
I don’t see it that way on a broad scale. I can only reflect on the picture we have – and we are satisfied with last year’s growth. Our customers benefit from our long-standing relationships and the timely credit decisions we make. Certainly, there are still sectors that are struggling with the consequences of the Covid crisis, meaning their business models haven’t returned to a pre Covid level. But there are many companies that because of Covid have built up particular resilience.

Commerzbank itself is in the spotlight. On a scale of one to ten: How certain are you that Unicredit’s takeover attempt will be blocked?
I am ten out of ten convinced that Commerzbank, as an independent bank in Germany and Europe, can operate very successfully and create sustainable value for our shareholders. At present, we see no basis for a mutually agreed, value creating transaction with Unicredit. Ultimately, however, the shareholders decide.

Why does Commerzbank feel so strong right now?
Due to developments over the last few quarters, we are on a very good path. We achieved or exceeded the targets for the past financial year and raised our outlook for 2026. And look at the share price: When I joined Commerzbank at the end of 2021, it was in the single digits, at six to seven euros. The current average target price set by analysts for our share is 38 euros. In addition, we see further potential beyond the strategic targets originally defined for 2028.

Unicredit is not being put off by this defensive stance. Is a serious attempt at a hostile takeover only a matter of time?
Our independent strategy is working and is being rewarded by the capital market. Against this background, investors – both ours and those of Unicredit – must ask themselves whether a transaction makes economic sense or not.

Is the share price the relevant factor?
Our message is: As long as we do not see added value for shareholders, it would be wiser, in a geopolitically difficult situation over the next three years, to focus fully on customers: corporate financing, mortgage lending, instalment loans, investment business, retirement provision portfolios and so on – instead of dealing with an integration that poses considerable risks for all parties involved and ultimately leads to keeping ourselves busy.

What are the arguments for independence?
We are a systemically important bank in the largest European economy. This economy benefits from an independent Commerzbank on the customer side. In particular, we are an important and trustworthy partner of the German Mittelstand – one of the most relevant economic factors in Germany. We have grown with many of our customers over decades. You can’t simply replace that.

The economist Monika Schnitzer advises the government not to reflexively reject the takeover. She says there are strong reasons of financial stability to examine a cross border consolidation. What is your response?
General statements about pan European banks do not relieve us of the responsibility to assess every transaction in terms of its rationality and value creation for all stakeholders. Size alone is not a value. Economies of scale may help on the cost side – but what is also crucial are product offerings, trust and proximity to customers.

What role does the workforce play?
Our task is to generate growth from the customer business. I can only do that with motivated employees. And the loss of these employees is one of the integration risks. Then perhaps the best ten percent of employees leave the bank, and then the best ten percent of customers go as well. There are customers who have told us very clearly that they will leave if the takeover happens. This uncertainty – what happens if this is not coordinated and if it goes against the will of employees, work councils, committees and so on – I consider extremely problematic. Hostile approaches are not compatible with corporate culture in Germany – and certainly not in banking. Our industry is based on trust and stability.

So far, the federal government as a major shareholder has shown a negative stance. Now, statements by Chancellor Merz can possibly be interpreted as an indication of change of opinion?
My perception is that the federal government has repeatedly and consistently stated its position very clearly. It supports Commerzbank’s current strategy, which is based on independence and considers Unicredit’s hostile approach to be wrong. And I am convinced that the points we have emphasized regarding independence are relevant for Germany as a business location.