Germany – Early Bird rises slightly
Our leading indicator for the German economy rose by 0.08 points in January, making up for the decline in December.
Commerzbank Economic Research
February 9 2024
Following the significant decline in December, the Early Bird rose again in January by 0.08 points from -0.29 to -0.21 points. The decisive factor for the improved January reading was that all three PMIs for manufacturing included in the indicator (US, eurozone excluding Germany and China) rose. The external economic environment is therefore no longer quite as negative as in the previous month. In addition, the headwind from the FX market has eased somewhat. The indicator of the price competitiveness of the German economy – the real external value of a notional Deutschmark – was barely higher in January than a year earlier. In the previous months, there had been a significant increase in some cases. These positive factors were partially offset by a higher short-term real interest rate due to the falling inflation rate ...
For full text see the attached PDF version.