Germany – Early Bird gains altitude again

Our leading indicator for the German economy rose significantly in September.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

October 6 2023

This was primarily due to a weaker euro. However, at -0.17 points, the indicator is still in negative territory, thus continuing to indicate below-average conditions for the German economy. The indicator therefore still supports our expectation that economic output will contract in the winter half-year. However, the indicator's increase compared with the previous month gives us hope that this decline will be limited.

After a minimal gain in August, the Early Bird increased significantly from -0.33 to -0.17 points in September. This was primarily due to developments on the FX market...

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