Germany – Early Bird slightly higher again

Our leading indicator for the German economy rose quite significantly in August from -0.38 to -0.32 points.

Dr. Ralph Solveen

Commerzbank Economic Research

September 8 2023

However, there have been repeated attempts to stabilize the early bird in recent months, each of which was followed by a new crash. Thus, it remains to be seen whether the indicator can actually stabilize sustainably. For the time being, the only conclusion that can be drawn is that, despite the increase in August, the Early Bird is as low as it was last during the financial crisis and therefore does not bode well for the German economy in the months ahead.

After the significant decline in the year to date, the Early Bird rose again in August from -0.38 to -0.32 points. The main driver here was a global economic environment that was no longer quite so negative.

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