Trump – what if...

What will happen if Donald Trump is re-elected US President in November?

Bernd Weidensteiner, Dr. Christoph Balz

Commerzbank Economic Research

February 9 2024

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Polling sees Trump in front

It has become increasingly likely that Donald Trump will be the Republican candidate in the presidential election in the fall and that there will be a repeat of the 2020 duel: Joe Biden against Donald Trump. Trump has been leading in the polls for several months, currently by around 2 percentage points (title chart). However, due to the peculiarities of the US electoral system, which slightly favors the Republican-dominated rural states, Biden actually needs a lead of around 4 points on the national average to defend his office. The Democratic incumbent's weak poll ratings are partly due to the continuing influx of refugees at the US southern border and the fact that more and more Americans are rejecting US involvement in "foreign" conflicts. Young voters in particular – who voted for Biden by a clear majority in 2020 – are critical of the US government's Middle East policy. A Trump victory in the presidential election on November 5 is therefore a distinct possibility.

Who will be the nominee for Vice President?

As Trump's candidacy becomes increasingly likely, questions are now focusing on whom he could appoint to the position of vice president. In most cases, vice presidential candidates are supposed to appeal to voter groups within and outside their own party that the presidential candidate is less likely to reach. Accordingly, younger candidates, women and members of ethnic minorities in particular are being brought into play for this position with Trump. According to the website Predictit, the betting markets rank VP candidates in descending order as follows:

  • Kristi Noem: 52-year-old Governor of South Dakota
  • Elise Stefanik: 39-year-old member of the House of Representatives from New York
  • Tim Scott: 58-year-old Senator from South Carolina and the only black Republican in the Senate
  • Vivek Ramaswamy: 38-year-old entrepreneur of Indian descent from Ohio

Sometimes Nikki Haley, Trump's only remaining rival in the Republican primaries, is also mentioned. Due to the bitter election campaign, however, it does not look very likely that Trump will pick Haley.