Germany – only temporary production increase

As so often in recent years, the timing of the summer vacation shutdowns again had a noticeable impact on industrial production this summer. The unexpectedly strong monthly increase in industrial production (consensus: 0.8%) is due entirely to the fact that production in the automotive sector rose by a good 19%. In the other sectors, production remained virtually unchanged. Production in energy-intensive sectors such as chemicals, for example, has now stabilized at a low level, and in the other industrial sectors the trend remains downward after a slight decline in August.

The figures for car production already released by the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) show that, unsurprisingly, seasonally adjusted production fell again significantly in September. Outside the automotive sector, too, a decline in production is to be feared in the coming months. This is indicated by the poor sentiment among companies and the continued weak order intake. As a result, the economy as a whole is likely to have stagnated at best in the third quarter, and a recovery is not expected in the fourth quarter either.

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